CLINT GHARIB, AIF®, CFED®
Here we go again.
Every election season I hear some version of: “If they win, I’m getting out of the market.”
I’ve been managing money for almost four decades through presidents and Congresses controlled by both parties. One thing I’ve learned: voting with your convictions and investing with your political emotions are two very different things.
Back in my 2020 Market Update, I wrote: “Emotions are to Investing like drinking is to driving—a terrible mix.” Six years later, I wouldn’t change a word. (oxfordra.com)
The market doesn’t carry a voter-registration card.
Midterm years have historically brought more volatility, but what happens as uncertainty clears is interesting. BlackRock found that since 1970 the S&P 500 has historically begun rallying about one month before midterm elections and averaged a 14.1% total return during the six months afterward. BlackRock’s point was not that one party is better for stocks, but that markets have often responded positively as election uncertainty fades. Source: BlackRock, “What History Says About 2026 Midterm Elections and Market Performance,” June 11, 2026.
Fidelity’s research goes back even further. Since 1938, the S&P 500 posted a positive price return during the 12 months following midterm elections 95% of the time. Fidelity also found average returns of roughly 5% during the second year of a presidential term versus about 14% during the following 12 months.
More importantly, Fidelity concluded that markets historically have responded more to changes in policy uncertainty than to which party wins or loses. Source: Fidelity Viewpoints, “The Surprising Truth About Midterms and Stocks,” August 12, 2026.
Of course, historical averages are not predictions and past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is where investors can get into trouble. You can find statistics claiming stocks perform better under Democrats, others under Republicans, and still others under divided government.
As economist Ronald Coase famously said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
The problem is that focusing only on which party controls Washington ignores the Federal Reserve, interest rates, corporate earnings, valuations, economic growth, wars, energy prices and countless other forces moving markets.
A president cannot turn the U.S. economy like a Jet Ski. It is more like turning an oil tanker.
That is why I would be careful making major portfolio changes based primarily on an election result. Fidelity’s research makes the same broader point: corporate earnings, business investment and economic conditions have historically mattered more to long-term returns than elections.
So vote however your convictions lead you. But when it comes to your portfolio, leave the red and blue jerseys at the door.
For 2026, my reminder is simple: Vote your convictions. Invest the facts.
The election matters. It just may not matter to your investments in quite the way the headlines suggest.
Please know we moved into our new office in Santa Rosa Beach at 116 McDavis Blvd, Suite 218, across from Dune Lakes Elementary School. Vsit www.OxfordRA.com for more information.
Opinions expressed are that of the author and are not endorsed by the named broker/dealer or its affiliates. All information herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be considered legal or tax advice. It is not an offer to buy, sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument to participate in any particular trading strategy and is not intended to provide, & should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax professional regarding your specific situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Certain statements contained within are forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements that are predictions of future events, trends, plans or objectives. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Oxford Retirement Advisors is an independent firm with Securities and Advisory services offered through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC (“MAS”), member FINRA/SIPC and a Registered Investment Advisor. Oxford Retirement Advisors and MAS are not affiliated entities.
